By TERRY NAU

Sports editor

Boston Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein bears a strong resemblance to the poker player who isn’t showing all his cards. He’s just sitting at the table with a straight face, revealing nothing, taking everything in, quietly snickering as Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman keeps asking for three cards.
Epstein is sitting in front of a pile of chips that almost obscures his view of Tampa Bay baseball boss Andrew Friedman, who is telling everyone that what worked last year isn’t working this year and he doesn’t know why. Sitting next to Theo is Toronto’s J.P. Ricciardi, who had to buy his way into the game and has been known to bet everything and disappear halfway through the night.
This poker analogy came to mind as I was driving home from work on Wednesday night, listening to reliever Daniel Bard pitch two innings of scoreless ball for Boston in his first big league appearance. Red Sox announcer Dave O’Brien kept mentioning the radar gun readings – 98, 96, 94, 97 … “and he does it with such an easy motion.”
Earlier on Wednesday, Boston’s top pitching prospect – Clay Buchholz – threw eight scoreless innings against Toledo, striking out 11 batters, lowering his earned run average to a miniscule 1.03 after six starts for Pawtucket. Buchholz ranks second in the league in that category behind Gwinnett’s Kris Medley (0.96 ), who will soon be pitching for his parent team, the Atlanta Braves.
Nobody seems to know when Buchholz will get the call to Boston. Epstein got a little cautious last winter and paid a few dollars to acquire veteran pitchers Brad Penny and John Smoltz as insurance policies for the long summer of 2009. Penny is 3-1 for Boston after six starts. Smoltz is still working on his golf game – oops – his pitching arm down in Florida and should be ready to contribute in June.
The big question for Red Sox manager Terry Francona is how does he use all these pitchers? His rotation right now features Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny and Justin Masterson, who is keeping a seat warm for Daisuke Matsuzka. The latter is just about finished with his rehab stint in Pawtucket. When Dice-K returns, Masterson goes back to the bullpen, which means someone (Bard?) has to go.
Penny has been mentioned as trade bait by none other than ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, whose job entails sitting around and dreaming up trades for people like Epstein to ponder. Olney suggests the Sox might plug their shortstop hole by trading Penny to Milwaukee for J.J. Hardy, who is a disposable commodity.
The bigger concern, at least from this vantage point, is the status of Mr. Clay Buchholz, who will turn 25 years of age on Aug. 14. Seems like Clay has been The Next Big Thing since he threw a no-hitter in his second big league start back in September of 2007. Last year was a wipeout as the Texas native got caught up in mechanical and mental issues. This year, he has regained command of the strike zone and is dominating International League hitters. He has struck out 27 of them in 35 innings while allowing just 16 hits and 10 walks. His WHIP (walks and hits per innings) is a miniscule 0.74.
How long does Boston keep Buchholz down on the farm? That’s the question of the moment. Epstein, Francona and PawSox manager Ron Johnson can talk all they want about the young man’s wonderful attitude, about his willingness to work hard and be ready in the minor leagues, but Buchholz would not be human if he didn’t wonder when his time will come.
Remember, Epstein still has chips to play. He loves his starting trio of Beckett, Lester and Matsuzaka. He seems committed to veteran “innings-eater” Tim Wakefield in the No. 4 slot. That leaves the No. 5 slot open to either Penny, Smoltz or Buchholz as the summer progresses.  And this is where it gets interesting. This is where we find out whether Theo Epstein is a real gambler or a conservative player who won’t sacrifice a card or two in order to collect the big pot.
It says here the Red Sox could firm up an awesome 1-2-3-4 playoff pitching rotation by bringing up Clay Buchholz right now and putting him into the No. 5 slot ahead of Brad Penny. Tell the young man he is here to stay, that his time to become a big league pitcher has arrived. Instead of telling him to “be ready and keep working hard in the minors,” tell Clay Buchholz to keep doing what he’s doing, only now you will be doing it in the big leagues.
If Buchholz is ready, then Boston has four months to put some big league experience into his portfolio. Four months to learn the league’s hitters, four months to succeed while playing for the best team in the American League. And then when it comes to late September and Tito Francona must decide on his starting rotation for the playoffs, he can honestly bypass the elderly Wakefield and send out a foursome of Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka and Buchholz. Talk about The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse! This is a unit that could bring the big pot of a World Series championship.
Or, Theo could just keep putting down small cards, inserting the 42-year-old Smoltz into the rotation, casting Penny aside, and leaving Buchholz to waste his bullets down in Pawtucket. Boston could sail through the summer, waiting for one of its two 42-year-old pitchers (Wakefield being the other) to break down. And then maybe the Sox would bring up Buchholz.
One thing I’ve always admired about the Boston organization is how it prepares its young prospects for the big leagues, calling them up at just the right time. Well, I’m saying now is the right time for Clay Buchholz. Let Smoltz go play golf at The Country Club. Send Brad Penny packing before his shoulder seizes up again. Take a chance on Boston’s future right now, Theo. Throw in all your chips and call everyone’s bluff.