BY JIM BARON

PROVIDENCE — Wracked by skyrocketing unemployment, staggering budget deficits and watching more and more of their neighbors’ homes going into foreclosure each day, 70 percent of Rhode Islanders think the state has gotten off on the wrong track according to a new Brown University poll.

That statistic, and the largely anemic job approval ratings for most top statewide officials seeking re-election, could have an effect on the November 4 elections locally. And although he is not eligible for re-election, Gov. Donald Carcieri’s approval ratings continue to plummet, to the point where only 39 percent say he is doing an “excellent” or “good” job (he scored 59 percent in January) and 58 percent rate him as “only fair” or “poor.”
Many of those who do face the voters in November will confront a discontented electorate. The exception to that is Sen. Jack Reed, who got a whopping 68 percent excellent or good rating and was found to be doing an only fair or poor job by just 28 percent. Congressman Jim Langevin squeaked by with a 51 percent combined positive reaction and 31 percent combined negative.
Rep. Patrick Kennedy scored an 11 percent excellent rating and 36 percent good for a positive score of 46; his combined only fair/poor score was 47 percent.
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, who doesn’t have to defend his seat until 2012, has a 46 percent positive rating (10 excellent, 36 good) and a combined negative score of 32 percent (28/14).
Legislative leaders typically perform dismally in these polls and this time was no different. House Speaker William Murphy was rated excellent by 2 percent and good by 15 percent, with 24 percent saying he did an only fair job and 18 percent calling his performance poor. But he did better than Senate President Joseph Montalbano, who only managed a 1.6 excellent ranking and a 12 percent good while 22.2 percent said only fair and 22.1 believing he has done a poor job.
Forty-one percent said “don’t know” or otherwise didn’t answer when asked about
See POLL, Page A-2
Murphy’s job performance, 43 percent gave that answer about Montalbano.
But Montalbano did not get the lowest excellent score in the survey. That went to President George W. Bush, who as usual took a beating from blue-state Rhode Islanders, getting just a 1.4 excellent number, with only 11 percent saying he has done a good job. He posted a 62 percent poor rating, by far the highest in the survey, with 24 percent calling his work only fair.
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama would get just 47 percent of the Rhode Island vote if the election were held today, the survey found, and Republican John McCain would get 34 percent – 7 percent said they would vote for neither of those men or for some other candidate. 
Fifty-three percent of those polled say Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the GOP nominee for vice president, does not have the kind of experience it takes to serve effectively as president if that became necessary, while 34 percent says she does and 9 percent were not sure. Sen. Joseph Biden, the Democratic vice-presidential nominee, does have that kind of experience, according to 74 percent of the respondents, 14 percent said he doesn’t and 8 percent weren’t sure.
Explaining the 70 percent wrong track number – 16 percent believe the state is going in the right direction and 11percent give a “mixed” response -- Brown University Professor Marion Orr, director of the school’s A. Alfred Taubman Center for Public Policy and American Institutions said many Rhode Islanders “are having a difficult time economically. Unemployment is very high. When people are not faring well economically,” then they believe the state is on the wrong track.
Orr believes several economically-linked issues, including mortgage foreclosures and budget deficits  “contributed to that number.” As bad as the wrong track number is, it is a significant improvement over the 79 percent wrong track result from a Brown poll conducted just last month, when only 11 percent said the state was headed in the right direction.
Looking at the “wrong track” number and noting that two high-profile Democratic incumbents – Central Falls Sen. Daniel Issa and West Warwick Sen. Stephen Alves – were defeated in the primary, Orr said, “I would suspect incumbent members of the legislature could be made uneasy by these numbers.”
During tough economic times, he said, “it is not unusual to see people respond by looking to ‘throw the rascals out.’ People tend to point to the people in office when things aren’t going well.”
As for Obama’s under-50 percent showing in heavily Democratic Rhode Island, Orr said the cross-tabulations in the poll showed that of the 46 percent who said they voted for Sen. Hillary Clinton in the primary, 22 percent are planning to vote for McCain. He said primary between Obama and Clinton “may have had a lingering effect.” That “would not be unusual,” he said, for such a long and hard-fought race.”
Slightly better Rhode Island news for Obama: 55 percent of respondents said they agreed with the statement, “This is a time when it is important to look for a person who will bring greater changes to the current policies even if he is less experienced and tested,” while 35 percent said they agreed with this statement, “This is a time when it is important to look for a more experienced and tested person, even if he brings fewer changes to the current policy.”
In other poll responses, 56 percent of those surveyed think the federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency should continue to conduct workplace raids to look for illegal immigrants where they are working and 31 percent said the raids should be stopped. Bishop Thomas Tobin and other clergy have called for a halt to the raids, while Governor Carcieri has supported steps to clamp down on illegal immigration.
Asked about the governor’s low approval ratings and the large number of Rhode Islanders who think the state is on the wrong track, Carcieri spokesperson Amy Kempe said the poll is a snapshot taken when an upheaval in the financial markets were causing concern nationally and locally and at about the same time it was learned that the state’s unemployment rate had reached 8.5 percent.
“The governor realizes these are difficult times,” Kempe said, “and he is doing what he can to tighten the state’s belt” and to train and educate Rhode Islanders for the jobs that are available here.
 Conducted Sept 15 and 16, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent.