By JIM BARON

PROVIDENCE — A stunning 83 percent of Rhode Islanders surveyed in a Rhode Island College poll say the state is on the wrong track, with only 11 percent believing it is headed in the right direction.

Perhaps less surprisingly, 73 percent of those polled agree with Gov. Donald Carcieri’s executive order on illegal immigration, which includes a requirement that state agencies and the vendors they do business with use a federal database to determine whether employees are eligible to work in this country and that certain state agencies work cooperatively with federal immigration officials. Only 18 percent disagreed
Two-thirds of respondents, 66 percent, said they would be willing to pay even higher electricity bills, “in order to help reduce global warming,” and 25 percent would be unwilling to do that.
Just under half, 49 percent, think Rhode Island courts should have the authority to grant divorces to gay couples married elsewhere.
If the presidential election were held today, 53 percent would vote for Democrat Barack Obama, 25 percent for Republican John McCain and 4 percent for some other candidate.
That is some of the highlights of a survey of 500 registered voters contacted by telephone by RIC’s Bureau on Government Research and Services (BGRS) between June 18-27. Administered by the Utah-based Opinion Factor, Inc., a polling firm, the survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
Asked about the 83 percent wrong track number, Professor Victor Profughi, director of the survey, called it, “Unbelievable.
“I’m not saying that there’s never been numbers like that anywhere in the country, I certainly don’t know every survey that has been done,” Profughi said, “but I have never seen anything like that and we have been polling in Rhode Island since the Garrahy administration.” (J. Joseph Garrahy was governor of Rhode Island from 1977-1985.)
Are things really that bad, or is that just the impression the average citizen has?
“It’s accurate to say that people have that impression,” Profughi answered. “I don’t know how you would objectively measure whether things are that bad. I think that’s a better question for an economist than me.”
Besides the 73 percent who supported the governor’s order on illegal immigration, 63 percent strongly agreed or somewhat agreed with cutting illegal immigrants and their children from the RIte Care heath insurance rolls while 33 percent disagreed. But when asked about reducing the number of low-income people from RIte Care, 62 percent disagreed strongly or somewhat and only 34 percent agreed. Two-thirds, 67 percent, agreed strongly or somewhat with imposing a two-year time limit on welfare benefits, with 30 percent disagreeing, either strongly or somewhat.
That may not fit the stereotype of liberal, blue-state Rhode Island, but Profughi says, “I think Rhode Island never has been terribly liberal if you are talking about immigration, or concern for the neediest elements of the community. It’s liberal in the sense that it has been strongly supportive of the kinds of things that labor unions have promoted and certainly social programs, but the population base has never been terribly liberal. I’m talking about the population, not necessarily the public policy.”
After answering a series of questions on economic and budget issues, those polled were asked who they blamed for the state’s fiscal problems. Forty-one percent named the General Assembly and 26 pointed the finger at Governor Carcieri. A full 20 percent blamed them both.
With an 83 percent wrong track rating and 41 percent placing the blame on the legislature, could that complicate some of the General Assembly races scheduled for November?
“The conventional wisdom would say these are pretty lopsided numbers, which of course they are, and that should have an effect on electoral outcomes,” Profughi said. But, he added, citing past surveys, “the tendency of voters in surveys and obviously at the polls as well, is to stay with the incumbent.”
Progfughi said the poll numbers “provide for the possibility, in targeted races, of picking up seats” for the Republican Party in the Democrat-heavy General Assembly. “The numbers reflect that there very well could be some races where the incumbents could be vulnerable because there is a considerable reservoir of opposition to the lopsidedness of the Democratic majority in the legislature.”
Other results in the poll:
--- Two-thirds, 66 percent, supported (strongly or somewhat) regionalizing municipal services such as garbage collection, police and fire, and purchasing and 25 percent opposed it (strongly or somewhat).
--- Capping the tax credits to producers of movies and TV shows made in Rhode Island was supported by 55 percent and opposed by 36 percent.
--- The least popular item was increasing the tax on medical and dental premiums that may be passed on to consumers. A full 80 percent rejected that, and only 15 percent said that would be alright with them.
--- Respondents split evenly on the question of level funding state aid for public schools, with 46.8 supporting it and 48 percent opposing it.
--- The “flat tax” option to reduce the tax burden on the state’s wealthiest earners was popular with 49 percent and was opposed by 45 percent. Forty-four percent said they supported restoring the capital gains tax and 45 percent said they were against it. But 60 percent opposed expanding the sales tax to cover professions such as lawyers and accountants and services such as landscaping, home repairs and cleaning.