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Sox-Yanks for AL pennant? |
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Friday, 28 March 2008 |
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By TERRY NAU Sports editor There are a bunch of problems with predicting the order of finish for Major League baseball teams even before April Fool's Day has arrived. First and foremost: It's way too early to get a grip on what the contenders will look like after the trade deadline passes on July 31.
Pennant races used to have an ebb and flow over the course of a summer. Now they get jolted at the trade deadline when one or two contenders make significant moves that seal the holes in their lineup, or pitching rotation, or perhaps even the bullpen.
That's what happened in 2004 when the Red Sox were treading water, maybe 10 games over .500 and another 10 behind the front-running Yankees in the A.L. East. General manager Theo Epstein knew he had to do something to shake up his lethargic, but talented, roster. So he traded brooding shortstop Nomar Garciaparra and replaced him with the enthusiastic Orlando Cabrera.
Theo also closed a couple of minor leaks and the Red Sox played better than .700 baseball the rest of the season. They lured the Yankees into a false sense of security in the A.L. Championship Series, rallying from three down to win in seven games, then swept the Cardinals in the World Series.
Now who could have predicted that kind of finish in March of 2004?
Here's one thing to remember about baseball prognosticators - they never give up. Which brings us to this week's Baseball Preview edition of Sports Illustrated, where the talented Tom Verducci lays it all on the line, picking the Yankees to beat out the Red Sox in the East, and then choosing Detroit to knock off Boston in the first round of the playoffs.
Verducci stays with the Tigers in the ALCS, then reveals himself by mentioning that the Chicago Cubs will be the World Series opponent for Detroit. The Cubs! The franchise that hasn't even been to a World Series since 1945.
See, this is what happens when magazine editors decide their writers must make predictions before the horses have eaten their morning oats. None of the writers wants to go with the "chalk." You rarely see anyone pick a championship team to repeat. No, the writer can only distinguish himself from the large crowd of experts around the country by tweaking his picks just a bit. And that's how some fools end up picking the Cubs.
Or, in the case of this perplexed scribe, how about those Toronto Blue Jays? Can a team with five excellent starting pitchers and a top-notch closer (B.J. Ryan, if he's healthy) beat out the Red Sox and the Yankees in the A.L. East?
Well, I gave it a few minutes' thought (all that any predictions are worth) and tossed aside the Blue Jays. Something always goes wrong with Toronto, usually injuries. So mark the Jays down for third place and let's get to the serious business of picking between the Yankees and Red Sox.
Last year, I put aside my personal bias and chose Boston over New York, mainly because of its superior starting pitching rotation. Little did I know that Boston's bullpen would carry the team for half the season. Who knew Hideki Okajima would set up Jonathan Papelbon so well? The guy was almost flawless for five months as Boston built up a 10-game lead over the Yanks.
New York got back into the race when Theo Epstein started thinking too much and decided to acquire former shutdown reliever Eric Gagne at the trade deadline. All by himself, Gagne blew five Boston victories. Suddenly, we had a pennant race in the East!
It always comes down to pitching, or lack of it, between these two teams. The Yankees ran out of starters in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS. Boston's pitching staff began to deteriorate a year later with David Wells going belly-up in the playoffs and Curt Schilling missing half the season with injuries.
This year, Schilling is hurting again, trying to recover from a sore shoulder and hoping he can return by mid-July. Boston's rotation heading into the real season that begins on Monday is led by Josh Beckett (awesome), Daisuke Matsuzaka (enigmatic), Tim Wakefield (elderly), Jon Lester (erratic) and Clay Buchholz (inexperienced and talented) or Julian Tavarez (are you kidding me?).
In short, Boston's starting pitching heading into this season is a work in progress.
Meanwhile, the Yankees' starters are in worse shape. Chien-Ming Wang is the No. 1 guy for the moment, a sinkerballer who keeps leaving the ball up in the zone. Andy Pettitte is the No. 2 hurler, and true ace, only his 35-year-old body is feeling the wear and tear that builds up over 13 seasons of hard work.
The key guy for the Yanks is 39-year-old Mike Mussina, who many baseball people believe is over the hill. Behind Moose are two kids - Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy.
Now that's a staff with a lot of question marks.
So maybe it comes down to the bullpens again. If so, then Manny Delcarmen becomes the key guy for Boston. If he emerges as a young and powerful replacement for Mike Timlin, who is running on fumes, then Boston can close out games from the seventh inning on.
The Yanks will rely on LaTroy Hawkins, Kyle Farnsworth and Joba Chamberlain to get the ball to Mariano Rivera in the ninth inning. My hunch is Hawkins and Farnie are going to have big years. That's the reason I'm giving an edge to the Yanks in the regular season.
Somehow, I can't see Detroit winning the Central. Cleveland looks better to me. Let's put Seattle in as the West champion over those injury-plagued Angels. The Sox get my wild-card, then beat Cleveland in the first round of the playoffs, setting up our first ALCS between New York and Boston since 2004.
There's not a chance in heaven I'm going to make a prediction on that series. I just want to see it happen. There's nothing better in life for a baseball fan in this region to see those two teams square off with the pennant on the line.
So that's my prediction: Sox-Yanks for the pennant in October. And yes, I know. April Fool's Day is Tuesday.
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Last Updated ( Saturday, 29 March 2008 )
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